The start of a calendar year is when lots of people start making bold predictions about how the industry will unfold. When it comes to crypto, a year is obviously an insanely long timeframe given the pace at which the industry moves.
Many smart folks placed their bets and we have selected the most thought provoking amongst them, in no particular order, organized by theme.
- The total market cap of blockchain-based digital assets will exceed $2 trillion U.S. dollars by January 1, 2019
- There will be a major correction in the ALTS
- Most utility tokens, then, will go to zero, regardless of team quality and execution.
- in 2018 volatility of the crypto market can increase even more, as the rapid capitalization growth of late 2017 was not yet accompanied by a similar growth of the number of crypto wallets
- Most crypto funds will (net of fees) underperform vs. BTC and ETH as benchmarks
- Ethereum will continue to be the largest blockchain developer ecosystem in 2018 by many multiples
- We start to see the permissionless blockchains (e.g. Filecoin) gain (possibly limited) traction in 2018.
Law & order
- The first “pump-and-dump” ring will be arrested as organised crime
- Not convinced that the well-intentioned SAFT is right for most tokenization projects
- The IRS and their equivalents globally will be demanding their pound of flesh.
- Now that the Coinbase precedent has been set with the IRS, expect Polo, Bittrex, and all other major exchanges with US customers to fork over trading records for clients above a certain trading threshold
- We’ll see numerous kidnapping and blackmail cases where top personalities are extorted successfully. Expect to see more personal security details in 2018.
Hacks & cock ups
- A major exchange will be hacked
- We will see at least one traditional financial brokerage firm lose money and go out of business because of mismanagement with a derivatives product.
- A bank run? What if all those gains in crypto, on exchange, in cold wallets, all of it… starts having a hard time getting to USD?
ICOs & Token models
- Forks with airdrops will become the preferred alternative to ICOs
- Crypto-securities aren’t really a thing yet, but they will be massive
- We’ll see many of the best practice initiatives mature and take a sensible approach to involving regulators and protecting investors whilst maintaining the innovation that makes the ICO compelling
- A bulge bracket bank blockchain-based stablecoin in 2018 if they can get it through compliance.
- Yes, Craig Wright could be (part of) Satoshi.
- I have no doubt Facebook is exploring cryptocurrency payments within the Facebook Messenger platform or some other token-related initiative. We may even see an acquisition attempt by Facebook.
- Intranets were great training wheels, until the Internet was pervasive. The same trajectory will occur with permissioned blockchains in 2018 and beyond.
- It won’t happen overnight, but many of the “winners” will end up deeply dissatisfied
- Expect more people to renounce their citizenship in high tax countries, and more people to move their legal residences to lower tax states.
Stefano's personal prediction is that 2018 is the year it all comes crashing down. We are surely building the future and witnessing a revolution, but we’re doing so at the ground floor of the biggest casino ever invented and sometime soon it will close its doors and kick everyone out to go and build in their dusty garages.
So, I think that aside from BTC and ETH, all of the other TOP 10 coins will disappear into oblivion. Staked 10 ETH for charity with Ari
on Twitter as he took the over. (BTW, if you can help us write a smart escrow contract for this, we’d be happy to donate a part of the 10 ETH to a charity of your choosing).
Yannick instead thinks we’re still at the very, very early days and the capital influx has just started.
Below the links to the posts where the predictions have been sourced from.