Rear view mirrors
While most crypto currencies have been crashing hard this week, it's been encouraging to witness few high profile tech people keeping the long term focus and openly discussing about which jurisdictions are more likely to become the Silicon Valley of crypto.
It all kicked off with Jason Calacanis' tweet
claiming angels can only do “meh to ok” outside of the Valley. Fred Wilson came back pretty hard, ultimately stating
how “the most disruptive startups of the last 10 years (BTC $40bn & ETH $20bn) did not emanate from SV
”, echoing bits from his memorable post on "Return & Ridicule
" (if you haven't read that, delete your account).
If that wasn't enough, the day after he followed up with a post titled “Jurisdictional Competition
”, where he succinctly pointed out how the US and Silicon Valley have the most to lose
from a crypto-unfriendly local regulatory environment.
A secular US tech decadence does not seem far fetched at all, particularly as it's effectively already happening: US VC is now 54% of global VC investment, down from 90% 20 years ago
. "where will it be 20 years hence?” Scott Kupor from A16Z asked
on Twitter. Our not so wild guess is around 20-30%.
There was more. Matt Ocko, who runs a deep-tech fund from SF, claims
that their typical founders do not fit the Silicon Valley cliche and in fact less and less of their portfolio companies every year are based there. Boom.
All this gets exacerbated by the current political context. The Trump administration is clearly going to make it painfully difficult (and unwelcoming) for immigrant entrepreneurs, without which "America will Fall Behind
", says Steve Case
. Brad Feld picks up on it
saying how great this will be for the rest of the world.
It's not hard to spot and extrapolate this trend, is it? Ignoring it is like driving while looking in the rear view mirror
Going back to crypto, it is a romantic coincidence that Crypto Valley
happens to be right at the heart of Europe. Switzerland no doubt has the chance to build onto its regulatory edge and create a thriving world class crypto ecosystem, and Europe will inevitably benefit massively from a healthy pumping heart. But other countries are not just going to be waiting on the sidelines, it's probably not going to be the usual suspects though.
One last thing. While we are hugely excited by the prospects of Europe capturing the hearts and minds of the best entrepreneurs going forward, we also need to be open
to the not-so-wild idea that the "next Silicon Valley" won't be geographically constrained and will rather unfold in the cyberspace. That would be totally on theme with crypto. :)
Back on the ETH price, this feels very much like the 2013 bitcoin price deflation.
ETH rose spectacularly in the past months, but this is a long game. It may go down more, and it may take a few years to see it back at its ATH.
But to be honest, we don't really care that much 🤷♀️
We're here for the amazing innovation happening in decentralized computing.
The main difference I personally feel today vs the 2013 price hike is that 4 years ago, it was clear BTC was revolutionary and in the future could become important, but it wasn't clear how.
Today, I think it is abundantly clear that the second-wave of blockchain technology is here, and is even more revolutionary than we could have imagined.
Distributed trustless ledgers and global smart computing are here to stay, and we can only imagine what else is coming.The revolution has started, and it will be decentralized.
Long rant over. Now off to some juicy stuff...